SAO PAULO (AP) — The fate of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro is largely in the hands of five people.
Within the next three weeks, a panel of five of Brazil’s 11 Supreme Court justices will decide whether Bolsonaro and 33 others charged by the country’s prosecutor-general of attempting a coup will stand trial.
To expedite certain cases, including criminal ones, Brazil’s top court can use one of its two five-justice panels, both of which are permanent and exclude the chief justice. Changes in each panel usually take place mostly by request or when one of its members becomes chief justice. In Brazil, the chief justice serves for two years.
As rapporteur of the cases against Bolsonaro, Justice Alexandre de Moraes was authorized to bring them before the panel he sits on.
The 5-judge panel that could decide Bolsonaro’s future excludes the two justices he appointed: André Mendonça and Kássio Nunes Marques. They sit on the other panel of the court.
Bolsonaro’s lawyers have said that they want the decision to fall on the full-court, not just on the 5-justice panel. But that decision can only be made by de Moraes, as the rapporteur of the case, or by three of the justices in the panel —a majority.
If the charges are accepted, that same panel could become the main judicial body to hear Bolsonaro’s defense, witness testimony and sentencing.
Brazil’s legal experts are split on whether to keep the trial within the 5-justice panel, so it doesn’t drag into the 2026 presidential election, or to move for a full-court decision, which would carry greater authority.
Luis Henrique Machado, a criminal attorney and professor at the IDP university in Brasilia, says it is “virtually impossible” that the panel will reject the charges against Bolsonaro, though this does not guarantee a guilty verdict.
The former President denies any wrongdoing in all five counts against him and has claimed that he is being politically persecuted.
Here are the judges set to decide whether Bolsonaro will be on trial and likely rule on the case:
Alexandre de Moraes
De Moraes is the rapporteur of the cases against the former president in the court and also a target of Bolsonaro and his allies. Appointed by former president Michel Temer in 2017, de Moraes is regarded as a conservative member of the court who, unlike his peers, has experience as public security secretary. The 56-year-old justice was also targeted by billionaire Elon Musk, who advocated for nis impeachment for alleged judicial overreach.
Cármen Lúcia
Lúcia, who is also the chairwoman of Brazil’s top electoral court, was appointed by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006 during his first term. Since then, the 70-year-old justice has been considered one of the harshest on the court on criminal cases, including those once aimed at the current president. Lúcia has often followed de Moraes in her decisions regarding democratic guardrails. Two years ago, she wrote in one of her rulings that Bolsonaro didn’t respect the presidency.
Cristiano Zanin
Zanin is the chairman of the panel. The 49-year-old was Lula’s attorney between 2013 and 2023, when he was appointed by the leftist leader to the country’s top court. Zanin’s work helped overturn Lula’s graft conviction at the Supreme Court, allowing him to leave jail and defeat Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. He was a critic of judicial overreach during the sprawling Car Wash corruption probe, which put Lula behind bars for almost one year.
Flávio Dino
A former federal judge who transitioned to politics before being appointed to Brazil’s top court, Dino, 56, is the latest justice to take his seat. He was appointed by Lula in 2023 after serving as his justice minister. He was on that job when Bolsonaro supporters trashed government buildings on Jan. 8, 2023, which the country’s prosecutor-general says was part of a plan to return the far-right leader to the presidency. Dino has been a Bolsonaro critic for years.
Luiz Fux
Fux, regarded by his peers as a moderate, was appointed in 2011 by then President Dilma Rousseff. The 71-year-old had a difficult relationship with the Bolsonaro presidency during his time as chief-justice between 2020 and 2022, particularly with respect to matters regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. When he left the position, shortly before the latest presidential election, he said the court was targeted daily by “hostile words or undemocratic acts.” He often follows de Moraes’ decisions.
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